SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 30 06 20
Vox Markets
SP Angel . Morning View
10:38, 30th June 2020

SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 30 06 20

Gold looks to break higher on Coronavirus resurgence

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MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below     

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) - Munni Munni platinum group metals project acquisition work program

Erris Resources (ERIS LN) – Resumption of Loch Tay exploration

Goldstone Resources (GRL LN) – Reduced loss in 2019

KEFI Minerals * (KEFI LN) – Tulu Kapi project finance on track for Oct/20 closure and full construction start in Q1/21

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) – Interim results

Vast Resources* (VAST LN) – Carlibaba licence granted

 

UK tightens Lockdown in Leicester due to rise in positive test results in the city

  • Staff at BMW’s Mini factory in Oxford which employs 4,500 have also tested positive thought the factory remains open for now.
  • Local Lockdowns to become new normal in the UK and elsewhere.

 

Flu strain discovered in pigs in China (BBC)

  • The strain of flu has pandemic potential according to scientists write in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
  • ‘A bad new strain of influenza is among the top disease threats that experts are watching for’. ‘So far, it hasn't posed a big threat’.

 

IG TV interview on gold and gold companies

VOX Markets podcast on mining

 

Dow Jones Industrials

 

+2.32%

at

25,596

Nikkei 225

 

+1.33%

at

22,288

HK Hang Seng

 

+0.44%

at

24,409

Shanghai Composite

 

+0.78%

at

2,985

 

Economics

Xi Jinping has published his third volume on ‘Xi Jinping: The Governance of China’ 

  • The book does not yet appear available in the Western Imperialist book shop of Amazon

 

US - not on EU safe travel list according to diplomats (Reuters)

 

Eurozone - CPI 0.3%mom for June beating 0.2% estimate

  • CPI 0.3% yoy for June better than 0.2% estimate 
  • Core CPI 0.8% yoy June in line

 

Dubai World completes debt restructuring $8.2bn debt

  • The state organisation has repaid $8.2bn to creditors two years ahead of schedule.

 

UK - Household deposits rose by a record £25.6bn in May

  • Households added £25.6bn to their accounts last month, reflecting both the reduced opportunities to spend and the fact that millions of wages are being paid by the government.
  • Customers reduced credit card and other unsecured loans for a third month, repaying £4.6bn in total (Bloomberg).  
  • Mortgage demand weakened further despite viewings being permitted as approvals slumped to just 9,300. 

 

UK – Prime Minister pledges new £5bn deal to build the economy 

  • £1.5bn - hospital maintenance
  • £100m - 29 road network projects
  • £900m – ‘shovel ready’ local projects in England for 2020/2021
  • £500,000- £1m for improvements to parks, high street and transport
  • >£1bn - schools building projects
  • £83m for prison maintenance and young offender facilities + £60m for temporary prison places.

 

HK - China imposes new HK security law

  • The new security law erodes the ‘one country, two systems’ environment which has been in place since the island’s handover to Chinese rule in 1997

 

Currencies

US$1.1210/eur vs 1.1257/eur yesterday Yen 107.70/$ vs 107.17/$.  SAr 17.353/$ vs 17.211$.  $1.227/gbp vs $1.237/gbp.  0.686/aud vs 0.689/aud.  CNY 7.071/$ vs 7.076/$.

 

Commodity News

Precious metals:          

Gold US$1,769/oz vs US$1,769/oz yesterday

   Gold ETFs 102.8moz vs US$102.8moz yesterday

Platinum US$818/oz vs US$812/oz yesterday

Palladium US$1,918/oz vs US$1,886/oz yesterday

Silver US$17.87/oz vs US$17.82/oz yesterday

            

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 6,015/t vs US$5,977/t yesterday - Copper on track for best quarter since 2010

  • The rebound in the copper price, which hit multi-year lows when the coronavirus was at its peak in China, is now recovering due to the top consumer's rebound along with mounting supply concerns in South America. 
  • The metal has surged 20% this quarter and climbed above $6,000/t last week for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak became a global pandemic (Bloomberg). 
  • Three-month copper on the LME rose 0.6% this morning to $5,979/t (Fastmarkets MB). 
  • On Monday, Shanghai copper prices hit their highest in more than five months as traders feared a drop-in output in Chile due to a spike in COVID-19 infections (Reuters). 

Aluminium US$ 1,614/t vs US$1,607/t yesterday - China bauxite imports fall 4% in May 

  • Imports of bauxite fell due to declines from the top supplier the Republic of Guinea which has begun its wet season- causing miners to scale back some operations. 
  • China imported 9.54mt of bauxite in May, down 4.0% from the previous month but up 3.6% compared to the same period in 2019. 
  • The first five months saw total imports of bauxite at 47.9mt- up 1.9% compared to last year (SMM News). 

Nickel US$ 12,855/t vs US$12,765/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,072/t vs US$2,035/t yesterday - LME zinc prices climb 1% on Monday 

  • Three-month zinc prices on the LME gained 1% in afternoon trading on Monday, erasing the metal's morning price weakness (Fastmarkets MB). 
  • The outright price on the LME closed at $2,062/t- climbing from an intraday low of $2,020/t.
  • Open interest in LME zinc climbed above a total of 240,000 open positions overnight- however this remains lower than the open interest peak last month of 273,449 positions on the 5th of May. 

Lead US$ 1,804/t vs US$1,793/t yesterday

Tin US$ 16,865/t vs US$16,730/t yesterday

            

Energy:            

Oil US$401.4bbl vs US$40.4/bbl yesterday

  • Oil prices remain stable despite fresh fears of a second wave of COVID-19 hampering Chinese demand
  • Whilst China’s oil demand has already recovered very quickly, to over 90% of pre-Coronavirus outbreak levels, June saw a new outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing, after 50 days without a new case being recorded
  • For the moment, it appears that the same localised lockdown strategy that was implemented against second-wave outbreaks in northern China in April and May is being applied in Beijing
  • As the world’s largest net importer of oil and other liquids since 2013, any significant variation in Chinese demand for oil has a significant impact on global oil pricing

Natural Gas US$1.693/mmbtu vs US$1.598/mmbtu yesterday

  • Natural gas prices surged more than 11% yesterday, following a report that showed that hedge funds added more than 28,000 contracts last week
  • This appears to be a short-term squeeze in prices, as it’s unclear if demand will rebound with some many businesses have yet to reopen due to the spread of COVID-19
  • The weather is expected to be warmer than normal but the increase in demand is not strong enough to offset many of the commercial buildings that are not using electricity
  • The spread of COVID-19 in the US is likely to stall the back to work effort, and put downward pressure on prices
  • Also capping gains are concerns over a cooler short-term weather pattern and low LNG demand

Uranium US$32.90/lb vs US$33.05/lb yesterday

           

Bulk:    

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$97.6/t vs US$100.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$521.7/t vs US$524.7/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$58.1/t vs US$57.9/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$117.5/t vs US$117.5/t

            

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$28,500/t vs US$28,500/t 

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$41,297/t vs US$40,984/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$4,809/t vs US$4,805/t

Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$30.0/kg vs US$30.0/kg

Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$4.9/kg vs US$5.0/kg

Tungsten APT European US$205-215/mtu vs US$215-225/mtu 

Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$460/t vs US$460/t

Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,350/t vs US$2,350/t

 

Battery News

McDonalds faster charge!

  • McDonalds is partnering with InstaVolt to install faster charging stations at its branches in the UK. (EnergyLiveNews)
  • The charging points will be installed at both new and existing drive-thru locations. Charging points will offer 125kW charge, providing an 80% charge in 20 minutes.
  • McDonalds claims it is the first project of its kind for a major UK restaurant chain.
  • The Company has 1,300 locations across the country providing a significant network of potential charging points.
  • InstaVolt is the largest owner-operator of rapid EV chargers in the UK. (Retail Times)

 

Meituan invests $500m in Li Auto

  • Lixiang Automotive is about to close their $550m Series D investment funding round following a $500m investment from local services giant Meituan Dianping. (Tehcnode)
  • The founder of Li Auto invested $30m of the remaining $50m.
  • The deal would value the Company at $4.05bn according to a ‘Late Post’ report.
  • Meituan invested $285m in Series C funding for Li Auto. The EV start-up raised $530m in this funding round in August 2019. (cnTechPost)
  • Li Auto is trying to compete with Nio and Xpeng. The Company only recently delivered their first mass market EV model 6 months ago.
  • The seven-seater PHEV Lixiang One toped best-selling rankings for medium-large clean energy SUVs.
  • Earlier this month Li Auto announced they had delivered 10,000 vehicles and are looking to expand their sales network to 30 Chinese cities in Q3.

 

Austria to provide up to €5000 in EV subsidies 

  • From July 1 the Austrian government is increasing purchase premiums and subsidies for zero-emissions and PHEV vehicles. (Reuters)
  • For Zero-emissions vehicles (BEV, FCEV) subsidies will increase from €3,000 to €5,000 whilst those for PHEVs with range extenders will increase from €1,500 to €2,500.
  • Car importers will shoulder €2,000 of the €5,000 with the government providing the remainder. (Electrive)
  • For corporates and local government, the maximum gross list price has increase to €60,000. Associations will be supported with up to €7,500 in subsidies up to 2.5 tonnes and €12,500 for vehicles over 2.5 tonnes.
  • Subsidies are also increasing for heavy commercial vehicles and DC charging stations for those vehicles.

 

Company News

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 1.95p, Mkt cap £3.8m - Munni Munni platinum group metals project acquisition work program

(Empire Metals is earning into a 41% interest in the Munni Munni Palladium Project in the West Pilbara, Western Australia.) (Empire Metals was formerly Georgian Mining*)

  • Empire Metals reports that the 1,928m drill program at Munni Munni has been completed by Artemis Resources.
  • The 12-hole reverse circulation ‘RC’ drill program goes to a maximum depth of 200m in each hole
  • Results are expected in three to four weeks from ALS Global.
  • The press release reminds us that completion of the deal with Artemis ‘is subject to a number of conditions precedent including completion of due diligence, execution of a formal joint venture agreement between the Parties, obtaining necessary regulatory approvals and obtaining all necessary third-party consents and approvals to give effect to the proposed acquisition.’
  • Management expect ‘the conditions precedent will be completed in a timely manner.’
  • Munni Munni has an old JORC-2004 Resource of 24mt grading 2.9 g/t PGMs and gold

This contains an estimated: 1,140,000oz palladium, 830,000oz platinum, 152,000oz gold, 76,000 oz rhodium.

    • Measured: resource - 12.4mt
    • Indicated: 9.8mt Indicated,
    • Inferred: 1.4mt
  • Empire Metals, formerly Georgian Mining, continues to hold and work on the Kvemo Bolnisi project in Georgia where the government has held up permitting for exploration on the project.
  • The joint venture company received confirmation of tenure from the National Agency of Mines in January for two key deposits including the key Kvemo Bolnisi East project.
  • Unfortunately the Agency intends to return three further deposits, Kvemo Bolnisi West, Tsitel Sopeli and Balichi,  identified by management to the Georgian State.
  • Management are appealing to the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development in Georgia.
  • The Kvemo Bolnisi project lies close to the Madneuli copper gold mine in Georgia and is held in 50:50 joint venture with Madneuli’s Russian owners.
  • The company has been forced to impair the value of their Georgian assets but will be able to apply a partial write back in their interim results due to the confirmation of tenure given in January on their two key assets at Kvemo Bolnisi East and Dambludi.
  • Empire Metals report revenue of £0.1m from operational services.
  • After expenses of just £0.72m the company reports a loss of £0.67m to end-December 2019 vs a loss of £8.78m in 2018
  • Management impaired just £0.1m of intangible assets
  • Group cash at 30 June was £363,000.

Conclusion: Management report good progress at Munni Munni in Australia and positive developments in Georgia. We are hopeful that 2020 should be a transformational year for Empire Metals.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker. The analyst holds shares in Empire Metals from the days of Georgian Mining.

 

Erris Resources (ERIS LN) 6.1p, Mkt Cap £2.4m – Resumption of Loch Tay exploration

  • Erris Resources has announced that it is restarting exploration at its Loch Tay gold project in Scotland.
  • Initial exploration of the Lead Trial prospect is expected to focus on the identification of the source of mineralised boulders located to the east of historic workings and work will include mapping, prospecting and soil-sampling.
  • Fieldwork was suspended in March as a result of Government measures to contain the Covid19 pandemic and the company has continued with desk-based studies to compile historic information and to gain a ʺbetter understanding of geology of the Project area and identify new targets.ʺ
  • Timetables for the earn in period have been extended to reflect delays resulting from the suspension of fieldwork.

 

Goldstone Resources (GRL LN) 7.15p, Mkt Cap £16.6m – Reduced loss in 2019

  • Goldstone Resources reports that, in part as a result of a reduction in corporate and administrative expenses, it has reduced its loss for the year ending 31st December 2020 to US$655,000 (2018 loss - US$1.01m).
  • The company highlights the completion during the year of the Definitive Economic Plan (DEP) for its Akrokeri/Homase gold project in Ghana which outline the development of ʺlow capex, low opex gold productionʺ generating an after-tax NPV10% of US$19.5m and IRR of 143% from an initial capital investment of US$6.5m at an assumed gold price of US$1,300/oz.
  • The Ghanaian authorities have granted approval ʺfor 10-year mining lease for the Homase South Pit, the first of three planned pits as detailed in the DEP, received in November 2019 and formally awarded post period end in February 2020ʺ.
  • Chief Executive, Emma Priestly said that ʺThe significant and material developments achieved during 2019 and H1 2020 have laid the foundations for GoldStone to become a gold producer in the near-term.  With a highly compelling Definitive Economic Plan, an approved mining lease and requisite financing secured to establish mining operations, we are now approaching the cusp of becoming a cash generative mining company.  Despite the administrative frustrations that we have recently endured, GoldStone has now emerged as a robust pre-production company, with a clear strategy to produce first gold before the end of 2020 and I believe we are well positioned to deliver meaningful value to shareholders."

 

KEFI Minerals * (KEFI LN) 0.9p, Mkt Cap £18.5m – Tulu Kapi project finance on track for Oct/20 closure and full construction start in Q1/21

  • Kefi Minerals reports a loss of £5.4m for the year ending 31st December 2019 (2018 loss - £5.0m) and a year-end cash balance of £150,000.
  • Discussing the progress of the company’s flagship Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia, Executive Chairman, Harry Anagnostaras-Adams, explained that, as a result of the 2020 plan, Tulu Kapi ʺnow has more reliable assumptions due to the finalisation of infrastructure design and the updated cost inputs.ʺ
  • In the context of stronger gold prices, the company has ʺadopted a gold price range of US$1,400- 1,800/oz for illustrative modelling purposesʺ and taken in conjunction with the revised operational projections, Kefi Minerals now expects Tulu Kapi to achieve all in sustaining costs in the range US$856-884/0z and to deliver average annual EBITDA in the range US$78-129m.
  • Development capital costs of $221m includes processing infrastructure expenses ($110m), mining infrastructure ($27m), off-site infrastructure ($20m), owners’ costs ($45m) and interest during construction and other finance effects ($19m).
  • Adjusting for all updated input costs, the Company estimates Tulu Kapi (open pit + underground) to generate NPV8% (after tax) of $363m/£290m at $1,600/oz gold price ($163m/£131m for planned KEFI 45% interest in the project) while the open-pit alone development option producing around140kozpa over eight years and AISC of $856-884/oz generates 45% IRR at the $1,600/oz gold price. ʺthe Definitive Feasibility Study ("DFS") based NPV of the open pit (US$300 million) added to that of the PEA-based NPV of the underground mine (US$110 million), totals to the aggregate Project NPV at 8% of US$411 millionʺ.
  • The company discusses its base case plan for the ownership of Tulu Kapi which, though still subject to final confirmation, envisages 22% participation by the Ethiopian Government with a further 22% in the hands of private investors with the remaining 56% held by Kefi Minerals’ wholly owned Kefi Minerals (Ethiopia). The ultimate ownership of Kefi Minerals (Ethiopia) is expected to dilute to 80% in the hands of Kefi Minerals leaving it with an effective 45% interest in Tulu Kapi.
  • The company says that ʺThe Government of Ethiopia has already commenced construction of the offsite infrastructure (electricity and roads) required for Tulu Kapi that it is funding.ʺ
  • The company also discusses the progress of its Saudi Arabian Hawiah copper-zinc-gold-silver prospect where the ʺfirst 69 drill holes identified three distinct massive sulphide lodes which vary in thickness from 3 metres up to a maximum of 19 metres. The overall results to date were encouraging and we are working towards reporting a maiden Mineral Resource for Hawiah in accordance with the JORC Code shortly.ʺ
  • The company also discloses that it proposes ʺa name-change of the Company to KEFI Gold and Copper PLC, to reinforce our mission and recognise our now-established position in those metals through the discoveries and acquisitions we have madeʺ.

Conclusion: The recent strength in gold prices has led Kefi Minerals to re-evaluate Tulu Kapi at a range of gold prices between US$1,400-1,800/oz resulting in an updated NPV estimate for the company’s share of the project of US$363m. We look forward to the initial mineral resource estimate from Hawiah.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Minerals

 

Power Metals Resources* (POW LN) 0.5p, Mkt cap £2.8m – Interim results

(Power Metals holds a  49.9% interest in Red Rock Australasia Pty Ltd)

  • Power Metal Resources reports a loss of £256,000 for the six months ending 31st March 2020 (2019 loss - £335,000) and a 31sr March cash balance of £289,000.
  • The company highlights the decision to confirm that it earning a 40% interest in the Molopo Farms nickel sulphide project in Botswana where it has identified 2020 drilling targets as well as the 20% owned Haneti polymetallic project in Tanzania and the decision to follow up copper-cobalt targest at the 70% owned Kisinka project in DRC.
  • Subsequent work has identified four target groups at Molopo Farms as well as an expansion into the historic Victoria goldfields in Australia where the company is assembling a land package in an area that is enjoying a resurgence of exploration interest.
  • The company also announced a conditional agreement ʺto acquire an earn-in right over the Alamo gold project in Arizona, USA, subject to the completion of due diligence.ʺ
  • CEO, Paul Johnson, said that the company ʺnow has a diverse business model, with a new and developing gold joint venture interest in Australia and base metal interests in Africa.  As a Company we are targeting large scale metal discoveries and in the Board's opinion each project interest we hold has the potential to deliver a large-scale discovery or discoveriesʺ.
  • Mr. Johnson also said that the company ʺis still undertaking due diligence on new project opportunities albeit the emphasis now is the operational and corporate development of existing portfolio interests.ʺ

Conclusion:  Power Metals continues to build a portfolio of exploration projects across base and precious metals in Australia, Africa and N America

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Power Metals Resources

 

Vast Resources* (VAST LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £23.3m – Carlibaba licence granted

  • The company reports that it has been granted an exploitation licence for the Carlibaba area adjacent to its Manaila polymetallic mine in Romania.
  • Granting the additional licence is expected to allow Vast Resources ʺto re-examine the exploitation of the mineral resources within the larger Manaila Carlibaba licence area.ʺ
  • The company reports that ʺThe Manaila Carlibaba exploitation perimeter contains a JORC 2012 compliant Measured and Indicated Mineral Resource of 3.6Mt grading 0.93% copper, 0.29% lead, 0.63% zinc, 0.23g/t gold and 24.9g/t silver with Inferred Mineral Resources of 1.0Mt grading 1.10% copper, 0.40% lead, 0.84% zinc, 0.24g/r gold and 29.2g/t silver.ʺ
  • The additional licence expand the compnay’s ground position by over four times to 183.6 hectares which ʺcould allow for a larger mining and processing facility to be developed on site and would eliminate the need for costly road transport of mined ore to the current processing facility located at Iacobeni, approximately 30 kilometers awayʺ.
  • The company explains that preliminary studies have indicated that the larger licence area might support a 125m deep open-pit mine while also allowing the simultaneous development of ʺa smaller higher-grade underground mine below the open pit mineral resourcesʺ.

Conclusion: The additional licence area expands the range of development options available to Vast Resources at Manaila /  Calibaba with the possibility of a combined open-pit and underground mining operation now under consideration.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Vast Resources

 

 

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

 

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver

BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel

Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt

LME

Oil Brent

ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore

NYMEX

Thermal Coal

Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal

SSY

RRE

Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony

Asian Metal

Tungsten

Metal Bulletin

 

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