GCISinger Macro Monthly: Broken Banks
Vox Markets talks to Jamie Constable of Singer Capital Markets about macroeconomic developments over a tumultuous month that brought fears of a GFC-style banking crisis and more nasty inflation surprises, offset by the continued strength of the consumer economy.
(00:00) Intro
(00:32) The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, and the implications for the wider banking sector.
(02:14) Why strong balance balance sheets at systemically important banks means the risk of further contagion is lower than previous banking crises
(03:43) Assessing the impact of the latest round of interest rate rises, and why central banks may have raised rates too far
(07:48) How rate rises have increased the risk of recession, and the impact of a contraction in the tech sector in the US
(10:55) What’s behind the strength of the consumer, and how rising credit card spending is partly supporting the consumer.
(14:36) The UK budget, the impact of personal tax changes, and the need for a coherent long-term plan for the UK economy
(18:15) What investment strategies have worked this year, including infrastructure investment and capital-investment driven companies
(19:41) How equities have offered bonds relative safety versus volatility in the bond market.
(23:41) The case for investing in UK cyclicals, including the tail wind of falling energy prices.
(25:52) Worries about the US regional banking industry and commercial property.
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