SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 03 08 20
SP Angel
SP Angel . Morning View
12:16, 3rd August 2020

SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 03 08 20

Manufacturing activity rebounds but falling employment remains a concern

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MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 

 

Adriatic Metals* (ADT1) - Non-Executive Director appointed 

Alba Minerals (ALBA LN) – £450,000 fund-raising

Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) – Southern Gold JV stake in S Korean JV “deemed” to be offered for sale 

Bluejay Mining (JAY LN) – BUY, Target 20p – Public consultation highlights strong government and local citizens

Empire Metals (EEE LN) –– Munni Munni PGM drill results indicate potentially practical mining widths 

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Bushveld renegotiates agreement and further 65.1% of Enerox 

 

Iron ore hits one-year high on market deficit expectations 

  • Iron ore futures rose 3.2% to $112/t on the Singapore Exchange this morning, the highest level since August 2019 (Bloomberg). 
  • Analysts at Capital Economics forecast a small market deficit this year, followed by a surplus in 2021. 
  • Chinese steel mills continue to build-up stockpiles of iron ore, which have risen for the seventh consecutive week, although holdings are still quite low and only represent 30 days of consumption (Steelhome). 
  • Supply worries from Brazil are supportive of iron ore prices, as the country posts 25,800 new Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours.  

 

COVID-19 – UK hospital continue to see a fall in COVID-19 cases at just 769 vs >2000 a month ago.

  • ‘There are 68 patients in mechanical ventilation beds, a month ago it was over 200.’ Prof Karl Sikora
  • Prof. Sikora points out that the COVID-19 hospital stats ‘are continuing to fall’
  • We hope it is the immunity carried by our T-cells which is the key. T-Cell tests are incredibly difficult to do
  • Antibodies only normally last a few months within the body after exposure to a virus.
  • Antibody tests are probably not now able to detect if people had exposure to the Coronavirus before May this year.

 

Dow Jones Industrials

 

-0.85%

at

26,314

Nikkei 225

 

-2.82%

at

21,710

HK Hang Seng

 

-0.26%

at

24,647

Shanghai Composite

 

+0.71%

at

3,310

 

Economics

US – The 10-year US real rate has broken below -1% for the first time as investors see more stimulus to come from the Federal Reserve.

  • The move is likely to weaken the US dollar further
  • \The government and lawmakers are continuing discussions over the size of another economic relief package as additional unemployment benefits paid to millions of jobless Americans expired and the Senate is scheduled to leave for an extended break on Friday.
  • Republicans and Democrats are attempting to close the gap between the $1tn relief package offered by the former versus the $3.5tn programme suggested by the latter.
  • Among the biggest differences is whether to extend the $600 a week in extra unemployment aid that was part of the $2.2tn stimulus passed in Marc, Bloomberg reports.
  • The US reported the lowest number of new cases on Sunday in weeks with California and Florida leading in the number of new infections among other states.
  • Risks of escalation in US-China tensions picked up after Mike Pompeo said on Sunday that President Trump will take action against Chinese companies including TikTok and WeChat in coming days claiming they are “feeding data directly to the Chinese Communist party, their national security apparatus”.

 

China – Private sector manufacturing PMI reading climbed for a third consecutive month in July with operating conditions improving at the quickest pace since Jan/11.

  • Companies reported the fastest increase in output and new orders since January 2011 amid reports of stronger customer demand.
  • Nevertheless, hiring remained subdued with staff numbers falling modestly.
  • Also export orders remained in the contraction territory for the 7th consecutive month, although, the rate of declines eased in July.
  • Overall, flare-ups of the epidemic in some regions did not hurt the improving trend of the manufacturing economy, which continued to recover as more epidemic control measures were lifted… However, we still need to pay attention to the weakness in both employment and overseas demand,” Caixin Markit report read.
  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 52.8 v 51.2 in June and 51.1 est.

 

Japan – The manufacturing sector reported a slower drop in activity in July after the nation’s state of emergency was lifted and as overseas lockdowns eased, Markit PMI data showed.

  • A contraction in new orders slowed to the smallest level in five months with business outlook seen recovering from April’s low point.
  • Consumer goods manufacturing fared better than capital goods that was the worst performing segment for export markets highlighting weak state of global investment spending and limited trade flows.
  • Vehicle sales decline reported a 10th consecutive YoY decline in July with negative readings extending all the way to Q4/19 when a hike in sales tax was introduced.
  • Auto sales fell 20.4%yoy in July compared to a 26.0%yoy drop in June.
  • Manufacturing PMI: 45.2 v 42.6 in June.

 

UK – Manufacturing reported a strong improvement in the operating conditions with output hitting a 32-month high signalling a robust start to Q3.

  • New orders climbed for the first time since February driven by domestic demand with new export business remaining weak and extending declines to nine months now.
  • Manufacturing employment fell for the sixth month in July, although at the slowest pace since March.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 53.6 in June and 53.6 est.

 

HSBC reports $3.8bn in provisions for potential loan losses in Q2/20, up from $550m same time last year.

  • That exceeded market expectations for a$2.7bn.
  • Provisions saw the lender posting a $1.1bn pre-tax profit, down 82%yoy and less than $2.5bn forecast by markets.

 

The UK is planning to rollout millions of high speed coronavirus tests across NNHS hospitals, care homes and labs providing results in 90 minutes.

  • The announcement follows the government’s promise to grow the testing capacity to 500,000 a day by October before a feared winter surge in infections.

 

Spain – Manufacturing sector returns to the expansion territory in July with marked gains in output and new orders.

  • On a less positive note, manufacturing staff levels continued to slide with firms operating well below capacity.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI: 53.5 v 49.0 in June and 52.3 est.

 

Italy – Manufacturing PMI hit a 25 month high in June while job with further increases in output and the first uptick in new order in two year, although, payrolls continued to slide strongly.

  • Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 v 47.5 in June and 51.2 est.

 

Australia – State of Victoria, the second most populous in the country, declared a state of disaster on Sunday and imposed a nightly curfew for the capital Melbourne in of the most harshest restrictions to date to contain a resurgence in new COVID-19 cases.

  • New restrictions will be in place for six weeks.
  • Victoria reported 671 infections, one of its highest, yesterday.

 

South Korea – The decline in exports slowed in July in an early sign of recovery in global demand.

  • Outbound shipments dropped 7%yoy compared to a 10.9%yoy drop in June and declines of more than 20% in April and May.
  • Separately, a contraction in the manufacturing sector also improved last month with the respective PMI climbing to 46.9 in July from 43.4 in June.
  • “July data provides early signs of a turnaround across the South Korean manufacturing sector… The output, new orders and employment components have all lifted from the lows seen in the second quarter of 2020, helped by reopening international supply chains and a gradual recovery in demand in key areas such as automotive production,” Markit wrote.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI: 46.9 v 43.4 in June.

 

Currencies

US$1.1764/eur vs 1.1896/eur last week.  Yen 105.89/$ vs 104.36/$.  SAr 17.190/$ vs 16.796/$.  $1.307/gbp vs $1.314/gbp.  0.712/aud vs 0.721/aud.  CNY 6.977/$ vs 6.987/$.

 

Commodity News

Precious metals:          

Gold US$1,973/oz vs US$1,972/oz last week - Gold hits fresh highs on Monday on persistent virus concerns  

  • The price of gold hit a new all-time high on Monday, as infection rates continue to rise in the US and hotspots around the world.  
  • Rising US-China tensions have also dented hopes for a swift economic recovery, as the two countries engage in tit-for-tat consulate closures and public criticism. 
  • Limiting gold's advance was the US dollar, rising for the second session in a row so far on Monday making bullion expensive for holders of other currencies (FX Street).  
  • Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,976/oz after hitting a record of $1,985/oz in early trade, whilst US gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,996/oz (Reuters).  

   Gold ETFs 107.9moz vs US$107.9moz last week

Platinum US$903/oz vs US$915/oz last week

Palladium US$2,096/oz vs US$2,107/oz last week

Silver US$24.30/oz vs US$24.09/oz last week

            

Base metals:    

Copper US$ 6,368/t vs US$6,486/t last week

Aluminium US$ 1,706/t vs US$1,729/t last week

Nickel US$ 13,625/t vs US$13,875/t last week

Zinc US$ 2,290/t vs US$2,324/t last week

Lead US$ 1,878/t vs US$1,878/t last week

Tin US$ 17,900/t vs US$17,930/t last week

            

Energy:            

Oil US$43.2/bbl vs US$43.3/bbl last week

  • US oil prices edged below US$40/bbl as OPEC+ started supplying more crude to a global market from Saturday, in line with the agreement, where many countries are still struggling to contain the Coronavirus
  • OPEC+ will pump c.1.5Mbbls more this month than in July as it starts to unwind its historic virus-driven output curbs, with Russia already having lifted its output slightly last month
  • The increase in supply comes as virus cases accelerated in California, a lockdown is being reinstated in Manila, and Australia’s second-biggest city instituted a curfew to stem the spread
  • Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to simmer, with US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo flagging measures against “a broad array” of Chinese-owned software deemed to pose security risks
  • As a result, WTI for September delivery fell 0.9% to US$39.91/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange as at the time of writing after rising 2.6% in July
  • Brent for October settlement slipped 0.7% to US$43.20/bbl on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after adding 0.6% on Friday
  • Crude futures fell 2.5% to 279.1 yuan/bbl on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange

Natural Gas US$1.872/mmbtu vs US$1.855/mmbtu last week - Natural gas prices nudged further as tropical storm Isaias formed in the Atlantic

  • The storm is headed toward the Gulf of Mexico but is expected to turn toward Florida
  • There is also a new disturbance that has moved off the coast of Africa, which has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm
  • The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next 8-14 days
  • Inventories increased by slightly more than expected according to the Energy Information Administration

Uranium US$31.35/lb vs US$31.60/lb last week

 

Bulk:    

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$105.9/t vs US$104.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$540.2/t vs US$535.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$60.2/t vs US$59.6/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$123.0/t vs US$113.0/t

            

Other:   

Cobalt LME 3m US$30,500/t vs US$29,250/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$42,496/t vs US$42,364/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$4,973/t vs US$4,966/t - Chilean regulators reject SQM's environmental plan 

  • Regulators have rejected SQM's $25m environmental compliance plan for the Atacama salt flat, suggesting that the miner start again from scratch.  
  • Chile's Environmental Superintendent approved SQM's compliance plan early in 2019, however the regulator announced on Thursday that it will comply with a regional environmental court's decision which called the plan "insufficient".  
  • SQM have since appealed the decision to Chile's Supreme Court, and has voluntary agreed to continue with some projection measures in the rejected plan while it awaits a decision from the court (Mining Weekly). 

Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$30.0/kg vs US$29.7/kg

Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.1/kg vs US$5.2/kg

Tungsten APT European US$205-215/mtu vs US$205-215/mtu 

Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$430/t vs US$430/t

Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,275/t vs US$2,275/t - Australian companies providing alternative to Chinese graphite 

  • China has dominated the sourcing and supply of graphite, a key material in EV batteries. In 2018 the company accounted for 70% of graphite minded globally. 
  • Australian companies are beginning to establish graphite mines and supply chains to challenge the established Chinese producers. 
  • Syrah Resources began production at its graphite processing facility in Louisiana, US in July in its bid to become the first vertically integrated anode material producer.  
  • The facility processes graphite mined in Mozambique for anodes to be made available for US and European manufacturers. 
  • EcoGraf plans to open a graphite facility in Western Australia to process Tanzanian graphite. 
  • The Company has signed a non-binding MOU to supply battery anode material to Thyssenkrupp. 
  • South Korean steel company Posco has signed an MOU with Black Rock Mining (Australia) to jointly development graphite project in Tanzania. (Financial Times). 

 

Battery News

EIB supports Spanish EV charging network 

  • The European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing €35m to Endesa for the provision of 8,500 EV and hybrid charging points across Spain. 
  • 2,000 charging stations will be installed this year throughout the primary motorway network and in principal urban areas. (Energy Live News) 
  • The project will contribute to the EU’s target of 1m installed charging points by 2025. 
  • The network will provide EV drivers with charging stations every 100km and in a major towns and cities. 
  • The remainder of the charging points will be installed by 2023. (Steel Guru) 

  

LG Chem posts record quarterly sales and profit 

  • LG Chem has announced 2.82trn won of sales and 155.5bn won of profits in Q2, both quarterly records. 
  • It is the first time in 6 quarters LG Chem has recorded a surplus in its EV battery business. (Business Korea) 
  • LG Chem became the #2 player in the EV battery supply market In China earlier this year, overtaking BYD. The Company produced 2087MWh of output up to May in 2020. 
  • The Company also became the #1 global battery maker, moving above Panasonic to the top spot in May. LG Chem’s market share has increased to 27.1% in 2020. 
  • The Company currently has 150trn won in order backlogs. 
  • Tesla, Hyundai Motor, Kia Motors, GM, Ford, VW, Renault, Volvo, Audi, Daimler, Jaguar and Porsche are all customers of LG Chem. 

 

Company News

Adriatic Metals* (ADT1) 105p, Mkt cap £188.7m - Non-Executive Director appointed 

  • The company has appointed Ms Sanela Karic, a Bosnian national with over 15 years’ experience as a lawyer with a career spanning corporate affairs, M&A and HR.  
  • Furthermore, the company announce that Mr Peter Bilbe, Non-Executive Chairman, has stepped down from the role of Chairman, but will remain a Non-Executive Director. 
  •  Micheal Rawlinson, who has served on the board since 2019, has been appointed Non-Executive Chairman.  

*An SP Angel mining analyst has visited Adriatic Metals operations in Bosnia 

 

Alba Minerals (ALBA LN) 0.08p, Mkt cap £3.6m – £450,000 fund-raising

  • Alba Minerals reports that it has raised £450,000 through the issue of approximately 692.3m shares at a price of 0.065p/share. The company is also issuing approximately 346m warrants on the basis of one warrant for every two share issued with each warrant exercisable at a price of 0.3p within 24 months.
  • The proceeds of the fund-raising will be used to accelerate work activities at Clogau including the following activities:
  • In addition, The Company also intends to complete the next phase of metallurgical testwork on the high-grade Amitsoq Graphite Project and to commission an independent scoping study on the Melville Bay Iron Ore Project”.
    • the bulk sampling of several tonnes of ore from several targets within the existing mine workings;
    • the drilling of a number of targets from underground, with the first phase expected to involve 5-10 holes for up to 500 metres of drilling;
    • the establishment of a bespoke gold pilot processing plant at or close to the mine site;
    • further underground chip and channel sampling and 3D scanning; and
    • the surface trenching of a selection of the 10 new gold targets previously identified by Alba over a six-mile section of the Dolgellau Gold Belt”

 

Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) – 3.45p, Mkt cap £15.3m – Southern Gold JV stake in S Korean JV “deemed” to be offered for sale 

Click for our 2018 note

  • Bluebird Merchant Ventures has announced that at a Board meeting of its joint-venture with Southern Gold, “Southern Gold have declined to approve the development of the two South Korean projects at this time” and that consequently Under the terms of the JV Agreement, Southern Gold have now effectively deemed to have offered to sell their 50% interest in the South Korean projects to Bluebird”.
  • Bluebird confirms that “The JVA sets out a clear process that governs the path that may lead to Bluebird acquiring 100% of the South Korean projects within a reasonable period of time.  Under the terms of the JVA, Bluebird has 45 days to present an offer to Southern Gold to acquire their interest.  The Company intends to make an offer to Southern Gold within the required period of time”.
  • Southern Gold’s announcement says that it “elected not to proceed with the Proposal to Redevelop at this time for various reasons including:
    • In the view of Southern Gold management there are likely to be timing issues around county government approvals, notwithstanding a ‘Permit to Develop’ has been secured for both projects; and
    • COVID19 induced delays which, in the view of Southern Gold management, make a project development announcement date in the near term unlikely”
  • Southern Gold also comment that its “very clear objective [is] to release value for the assets by either sale or corporate restructure without continuing to have to fund  ongoing joint venture expenditures other than care and maintenance in the near term.”
  • Bluebird clearly takes a different view and says that although it “respects Southern Gold's point of view but strongly disagrees with their view on the timing of county government approvals.  Both projects have been granted a Permit to Develop which allows for mining operations to commence”.
  • Colin Patterson, CEO of Bluebird says that the company “has been presented with a great opportunity to increase its stake in the South Korean Projects.  With the price of gold at record highs, the timing could not be better and we intend to conclude the process with Southern Gold as quickly as possible”.
  • Bluebird also confirms that it has been in discussion with its funding partners “who deem the prospect of Bluebird increasing its interest in the South Korean projects as very positive given the current price of gold and the robust project economics.  However, it has been agreed that this process needs to reach a satisfactory conclusion in order that the redevelopment can take place prior to the release of funding.  The Company notes that this funding will be sufficient to fund 100% of the project costs”.

Conclusion: Bluebird and its joint-venture partner in South Korea hold divergent views as to the best way to proceed. Both parties may achieve their objectives if Bluebird acquires the Southern Gold interest and the passage of time will resolve which party’s view proves correct.

 

Bluejay Mining (JAY LN) 7.45, Mkt cap £72m – Public consultation highlights strong government and local citizens

BUY - Target 20p

  • Buejay Mining report the final face-to-face public consultation meeting successfully took place at Ilulissat on Friday 31 July 2020. 
  • A meeting which was due at Savissivik on 27 July 2020 was postponed due to fog and will be rescheduled as a teleconference meeting in August. 
  • The Public Consultation period ends on 2 September 2020.
  • Bluejay COO Bo Møller Stensgaard, Dundas director Hans Jensen and consultants NIRAS and WSP Orbicon, who have developed the Social and Environmental Impact assessments were present at the Illulisat meeting.
  • ‘The Greenland Government Minister for Industry and Mineral Resources Jens Frederick Nielsen stated "We were very pleased with the attendance, questions and level of support from the participants at the meetings that have taken place in Qaanaaq and Ilulissat. The Dundas Ilmenite Project represents an important opportunity for North-West Greenland and the country. At the Public Consultation meetings, we have seen considerable support from local citizens and stakeholders, and we look to continue progressing the process towards finalising the exploitation licence decision."’
  • The ‘Greenland Government Minister for Labour, Science and Environment Jess Svane stated "I would like thank all those who participated in the regional meetings. We received good questions, input and responses from those in attendance, and we would like to thank Dundas Titanium for their rigorous approach to this important process. The project represents an environmentally low-impact mining project and we see no environmental obstacles that can't be mitigated."’

Conclusion: It is rare to hear such strong support for a coastal mining project from government ministers. We look forward to the result of the public consultation and to news of any changes as a result of questions and issues raised in the consultation and to the issuance of a mining license shortly after. We expect Bluejay to start mining in 2021.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker. The analyst has visited the Dundas ilmenite project in Greenland. The analyst holds shares in Bluejay Mining. Dundas  is well worth the visit as Greenland is awe inspiring.

 

Empire Metals (EEE LN) – 1.7p, Mkt cap £3.3m – Munni Munni PGM drill results indicate potentially practical mining widths 

(Empire Metals has signed a binding agreement with Artemis to acquire 58.6% of Munni Munni Pty Ltd which holds 70% of the Munni Munni Palladium project.

Platina Resources has issued a writ against Artemis alleging a breach of an agreement by Artemis in relation to Munni Munni. Artemis intends to ‘vigorously defend their position and wish to move forward with Empire to develop the Munni Munni project’)

  • Empire Metals has published results from a 1,928m programme of reverse-circulation drilling (12 holes) and previously unpublished results from diamond drilling completed in 2018 at the Munni-Munni palladium project in Western Australia where the company has a binding agreement, with Artemis Resources, to a 58.6% interest.
  • The results show relatively consistent widths of between 4-7m of mineralisation averaging between 1-2.5g/t of combined platinum group elements (PGE), palladium (Pd) and platinum (Pt) and further confirms the northern ‘nose’ of the >20km long Munni Munni mafic intrusive Complex.
  • ‘The litho-chemical data again shows the very consistent nature of the mafic layering within the Complex but has also highlighted faulting and related dip changes of the PGE Reef.’
  • The results highlighted in the announcement are:
    • 6.5m @ 1.68g/t 2PGE + 0.14g/t Au, (1.13g/t Pd, 0.55g/t Pt) from 41m, 18MMAD001;
    • 4m @ 2.44g/t 2PGE + 0.27g/t Au, (1.48g/t Pd, 0.96g/t Pt) from 34.5m, 18MMAD003;
    • 5m @ 2.35g/t 2PGE + 0.17g/t Au, (1.49g/t Pd 0.86g/t Pt) from 34.5m, 18MMAD005;
    • 6m @ 1.65g/t 2PGE + 0.17g/t Au, (0.97g/t Pd, 0.68g/t Pt) from 82m, 18MMAC008;
    • 7m @ 1.43g/t 2PGE + 0.11g/t Au, (0.91g/t Pd, 0.52g/t Pt) from 122m, 20MMRC007
    • 5m @ 1.68g/t 2PGE + 0.14g/t Au, (1.08g/t Pd 0.6g/t Pt) from 19m, 20MMRC005;
    • 5m @ 1.42g/t 2PGE + 0.11 g/t Au, (0.94g/t Pd, 0.48 g/t Pt) from 65.5m, 18MMAD007;
    • 5m @ 1.36g/t 2PGE + 0.09 g/t Au, (0.96g/t Pd 0.44g/t Pt) from 28m, 18MMAD006;
    • 5m @ 1.19g/t 2PGE + 0.16g/t Au, (0.74g/t Pd 0.45g/t Pt) from 70m, 20MMRC006
    • 6m @ 1.17g/t 2PGE + 0.13 g/t Au, (0.76 g/t Pd, 0.41 g/t Pt) from 144m, 20MMRC011
    • 4m @ 1.07g/t 2PGE + 0.04 g/t Au, (0.7 g/t Pd, 0.37g/t Pt) from 194m, 20MMRC012 to EOH.
  • The company explains that the 2108 drilling was specifically targeted to confirm the precise position of the PGE horizon and did not provide any new information. The RC drilling programme was designed to add further confirmation of the PGE horizon position around the northern nose of the >20km long Munni Munni mafic intrusive Complex”.
  • Empire Metals also explains that “the PGE horizon is essentially a stratigraphic zone … [and that] … Historical drilling had shown the zone presence virtually encircling the entire intrusive complex”.
  • Discussing the agreement with Artemis Resources, Empire Metals confirms that “As announced on Monday 20 July 2020, Artemis was served a writ of summons on Friday 17 July 2020 issued by the Supreme Court of Western Australia as filed by Platina Resources Limited ('Platina'), the 30% joint venture partner to Artemis on the Munni Munni Project. Platina claims that Artemis and its wholly owned subsidiary, MMPL, have breached the Heads of Agreement entered into by the parties relating to the Munni Munni Joint Venture as a result of the Company entering into the agreement with Empire. Artemis denies Platina's claim and have stated that they intend to vigorously defend their position and wish to move forward with Empire to develop the Munni Munni project”.
  • Commenting on the drilling results, CEO, Mike Struthers, said These drill results at Munni Munni add confidence to the positioning of the main PGE reef from historical work, confirm practical mining widths are present, and generally support previous drilling results. They provide a good platform for further work on the project in future”.

Conclusion:  Drilling at Munni-Munni continues to intersect consistent grades and thicknesses of PGE mineralisation within 200m of the surface in confirmation of previous drilling by previous explorers. While the data looks promising much more work will need to be done before assessing the economic viability and potential value of the Munni Munni project.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Empire Metals

 

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 11.31p, Mkt Cap £130m – Bushveld renegotiates agreement and further 65.1% of Enerox 

(Bushveld Minerals owns 74% of Vametco, 100% of Vanchem, 84% of Bushveld Energy in South Africa, 100% of Lemur Holdings, 9.5% of Afritin)

(Bushveld Energy has negotiated to holds 90% of Enerox GmbH along with 8.71% in Invinity)

Valuation 82p

  • Bushveld has renegotiated its agreement for the acquisition of a further 65.1% of Enerox GmbH bringing its stake up to 90% of the business.
  • Bushveld has already jointly invested €2.6m and will pay a nominal amount for the additional stake in Enerox shares on provision of a new secured shareholder loan facility of €3.7m to Enerox.
  • The loan will provide working capital and capital to enable Enerox to reach sustainable commercial production.
  • The facility is to be secured on certain assets of Enerox, although the security will be subordinated to security provided to Enerox's current lender, FGP Protective Opportunity Master Fund SPC.
  • The original terms were for the Bushveld Energy consortium to acquire Enerox for a further €10.85m on a debt free basis.
  • Bushveld Energy will now hold 90% of Enerox with the seller holding the remaining 10%.
  • The stake is held by Bushveld Energy with Bushveld is looking to help with the financing of new battery instillations.  
  • Bushveld Energy intends to own a minority interest in Enerox in line with its strategy of holding minority positions in select equipment manufacturers.
  • Enerox’s Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries rank among the most widely installed in the 10 years with due diligence showing multiple battery instillations operating for over ten years.
  • Enerox is a well-established Vanadium Redox Flow Battery manufacturer with over 130 installations to date.
  • The business has a newly redesigned battery in a modular and stackable 40ft container to improve standardisation and cut costs.
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  • It is intended that Bushveld will be awarded a right of first refusal to supply vanadium products to Enerox on the same material terms as any other supplier.
  • Bushveld renegotiated the terms of its investment into Enerox
  • The move is in line with Bushveld’s VIP ‘Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Investment Program’ which also holds 8.71% in Invinity, formed from the merger of Avalon and redT energy (RedT LN). The Invinity stake is now worth £6.8m.
  • The outlook for energy storage ‘remains strong, with cumulative installations of grid-connected battery energy storage predicted to reach 64.3 GW / 179 GWh in 2025.’ Though delays of several months are likely for our projects in South Africa.

Conclusion: Management have renegotiated the terms of the Enerox deal to ensure funds go into the underlying business for its development.

This should be a win win for Bushveld Energy and the sellers of Enerox Gmbh.

The funds should enable the construction and deployment of Enerox’ next generation of VRFB batteries for the future support of solar and wind systems as Europe becomes more dependent on less consistent renewable energy power generation.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad & Broker to Bushveld Minerals.

 

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490 / 07943031001

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

 

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver

BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel

Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt

LME

Oil Brent

ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore

NYMEX

Thermal Coal

Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal

SSY

RRE

Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony

Asian Metal

Tungsten

Metal Bulletin

 

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II - Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest

The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. Vox Markets may receive payment from companies mentioned for enhanced profiling or publication presence. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

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