The UK is probably already in recession
Taking Stock on Monday 6th November 2023
Taking Stock: Is a look at today's top business news & investment views plus we cover the winners, losers, the most read company news & the most followed. Today this includes:
The UK is probably already in recession
Analysis by Bloomberg Economics this morning shows that Britain could already be falling into recession.
The research shows a 52% chance that the economy contracted in the third quarter of 2023, and also shrinks again in the current quarter, as household spending is hit by high interest rates and rising unemployment.
That would meet the technical definition of a recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction).
Bloomberg points out:
A recession would be a headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, due to fight an election next year. A recession could increase the chances of the Bank of England pivoting toward reducing interest rates, especially if inflation has come down sharply.
Last week, the BoE said there was a 50-50 chance of a recession by the middle of next year.
Construction PMI (Oct)
Actual = 45.6
Forecast = 46.0
Previous = 45
Companies discussed on “Taking Stock” today:
14:50 Faron Pharmacuetical #FARN
15:40 Vast Resources #VAST
16:37 Harland & Wolff #HARL
18:00 Greatland Gold #GGP
21:00 Powerhouse Energy #PHE
22:55 & 32:55 Plexus Holdings #POS
25:30 Impax Asset Management #IPX
33:40 Tintra #TNT
34:00 Bushveld Minerals #BMN
35:50 Power Metals Resources #POW
36:10 Kavango Resources #KAV
37:25 Xeros #XSG
37:58 Surface Transforms #SCE
39:00 Asos #ASC
39:10 Boohoo #BOO
43:25 Kitwave #KITW
CHARTS OF INTEREST
TOP BUSINESS STORIES
Two thirds of Britons to spend less this Christmas
Almost two thirds of UK adults are planning to cut back on spending this Christmas, according to research from Accenture, published on Monday, which is significantly more pessimistic than other recent surveys.
Britons are looking to reduce their spending on presents, on eating out and on food and drink at home due to worries about the cost of living, said information technology and services group Accenture, whose survey data came from YouGov.
Its survey also found that more than half of UK adults were not planning to take advantage of discounts on Black Friday, Cyber Monday or Boxing Day.
Annual oil and gas licences planned with net zero commitment required
Licences for oil and gas projects in the North Sea are set to be awarded annually, under government plans.
There is currently no fixed period between licensing rounds - but this would change under a bill to be announced in Tuesday's King's Speech.
Ministers said projects would have to meet net zero targets and claimed the policy would guarantee energy security.
Greenpeace said oil and gas exploration was "backward-facing" and vowed to fight new licences in court.
Labour has said it will honour existing licences granted before the next election, but would not allow any new ones to be granted if it won power.
UK car sales rose around 14% last month
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
UK car sales have climbed for the 15th month running, as the industry continues to shake off the supply chain problems suffered in the Covid-19 pandemic.
Registrations of new vehicles rose 14% year-on-year in October, according to preliminary figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. That extends a run of gains that began in August 2022.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of SMMT, says new car registrations have finally returned to pre-pandemic levels, after four years of disruption.
He said that the supply chain issues the industry faced globally (such as shortages of semiconductors) have been easing.
We’ve been able to shore up demand, and the wait lists that so many people were experiencing over the last two or three years have eased, so we’ve been able to fulfill the level of demand that’s there.
Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest
The information, investment views and recommendations in this article are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the writer but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. Vox Markets may receive payment from companies mentioned for enhanced profiling or publication presence. The writer may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.